{"id":1956,"date":"2026-03-29T09:08:28","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T13:08:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/?p=1956"},"modified":"2026-03-29T09:08:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T13:08:29","slug":"is-alberta-negotiating-in-good-faith","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/2026\/03\/29\/is-alberta-negotiating-in-good-faith\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Alberta Negotiating in Good Faith?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n

On Tuesday, March 25, Canada and Alberta announced an agreement in principle<\/a> on methane emissions.

The agreement is part of an ongoing effort to finalize the Canada-Alberta MOU<\/a>, which commits both governments to reach deals in four key areas: industrial carbon pricing, methane regulation, the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project, and cooperation on environmental assessments.

The deal would let Alberta regulate its own methane under a provincial system, with a target of 75% reduction from 2014 levels by 2035. Both governments called it a step forward. Ottawa said it would\u00a0stand down federal methane regulations<\/a>\u00a0in Alberta in exchange for equivalent provincial action. An independent third party would be brought in to verify the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But forty-eight hours later, Alberta’s Energy Regulator released new methane rules that appear to undercut the agreement<\/a> the province had just signed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Calgary-based Pembina Institute reviewed the AER’s amendments to Directive 060 \u2014 the technical regulation governing flaring, incineration, and venting in the upstream oil and gas sector \u2014 and\u00a0found them weaker than federal standards<\/a>\u00a0in several specific ways.

Where federal regulations prohibit routine venting of methane entirely, Alberta’s new rule only limits venting volumes from a single source. There is no plan to phase out emitting pneumatic devices \u2014 something the federal government, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan are all moving toward. Alberta’s flaring controls fall short of a federal requirement for an engineering study to justify any routine flaring. And there is no equivalent to federal leak detection and repair requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amanda Bryant, head of Pembina’s oil and gas program, did not mince words. The draft provincial regulation, she said, is clearly weaker than the federal one \u2014 and she would not expect it to be deemed legally equivalent under the forthcoming equivalency process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This matters because methane an important driver of climate change. It carries roughly 80 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide over a 20-year horizon. The IPCC\u00a0identifies methane reduction<\/a>\u00a0as one of the cheapest, fastest paths to meaningful emissions cuts. And it is overwhelmingly cost-effective \u2014 capturing methane means capturing natural gas that can be used or sold, which is why over 50 international oil and gas companies have\u00a0voluntarily pledged<\/a>\u00a0to virtually eliminate methane emissions by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the stakes, the agreement in principle should have been straightforward. In some respects, it is. In others, it leaves important gaps that raise questions about how effectively Alberta will actually cut methane emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What the Agreement in Principle Says <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deal sets a target of 75% reduction in methane from 2014 levels by 2035. A draft equivalency agreement is to be published later this year for a 60-day public comment period, with the goal of finalizing it by year-end. The agreement would take effect no later than January 1, 2027, and last for 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe Cost of the Five-Year Delay \u2014 mydamnac.com<\/title>\n<style>\n body {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 20px;\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n .chart-container {\n max-width: 780px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n position: relative;\n }\n .chart-title {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 20px;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #1a1a1a;\n margin-bottom: 6px;\n line-height: 1.3;\n }\n .chart-subtitle {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 12px;\n font-weight: 400;\n color: #555;\n margin-bottom: 18px;\n line-height: 1.5;\n }\n .chart-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n width: 100%;\n }\n .chart-source {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 10px;\n color: #999;\n margin-top: 8px;\n line-height: 1.4;\n }\n<\/style>\n<\/head>\n<body>\n\n<div class=\"chart-container\" id=\"delay-cost-container\">\n <div class=\"chart-title\">The Cost of Delay<\/div>\n <div class=\"chart-subtitle\">A five-year delay in reaching a 75% reduction in Alberta’s methane emissions is equivalent to adding 53 million tonnes of CO\u2082 to the atmosphere.<\/div>\n <div class=\"chart-wrapper\">\n <canvas id=\"delayCostChart\"><\/canvas>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"chart-source\">\n Data adapted from Pembina Institute, using Government of Canada, National Inventory Report 1990\u20132023: Greenhouse gas sources and sinks in Canada (2025). Methane impact modelling: Pembina Institute \/ Environmental Defense Fund. 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midPt2035.y - 90 : chart.chartArea.top + 60;\n\n ctx.save();\n ctx.textAlign = 'center';\n\n \/\/ \"1.9 million tonnes of\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 12px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#C8391A';\n ctx.fillText('1.9 million tonnes of', anchorX, anchorY);\n\n \/\/ \"additional methane\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 12px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#C8391A';\n ctx.fillText('additional methane', anchorX, anchorY + 16);\n\n \/\/ \"equivalent to\"\n ctx.font = '10px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#888';\n ctx.fillText('equivalent to', anchorX, anchorY + 34);\n\n \/\/ \"53 million tonnes of\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 12px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('53 million tonnes of', anchorX, anchorY + 50);\n\n \/\/ \"additional CO\u2082\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 12px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('additional CO\\u2082', anchorX, anchorY + 66);\n\n ctx.restore();\n }\n };\n\n \/\/ Custom plugin: draw target point labels\n var targetLabelsPlugin = {\n id: 'targetLabels',\n afterDraw: function(chart) {\n var ctx = chart.ctx;\n var meta2030 = chart.getDatasetMeta(1);\n var meta2035 = chart.getDatasetMeta(2);\n\n \/\/ 2030 target label\n var pt2030 = meta2030.data[16]; \/\/ index 16 = 2030\n if (pt2030) {\n ctx.save();\n ctx.textAlign = 'center';\n ctx.font = 'bold 11px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('2030 target', pt2030.x, pt2030.y + 22);\n ctx.restore();\n }\n\n \/\/ 2035 target label\n var pt2035 = meta2035.data[21]; \/\/ index 21 = 2035\n if (pt2035) {\n ctx.save();\n ctx.textAlign = 'center';\n ctx.font = 'bold 11px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('2035 target', pt2035.x, pt2035.y + 22);\n ctx.restore();\n }\n\n \/\/ \"Historic\" label on the solid line\n var ptHistoric = meta2030.data[3]; \/\/ ~2017 area\n if (!ptHistoric) {\n var metaHist = chart.getDatasetMeta(0);\n ptHistoric = metaHist.data[3];\n }\n if (ptHistoric) {\n var metaHist = chart.getDatasetMeta(0);\n var hPt = metaHist.data[4]; \/\/ 2018\n if (hPt) {\n ctx.save();\n ctx.font = 'bold 12px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('Historic', hPt.x - 10, hPt.y - 14);\n ctx.restore();\n }\n }\n }\n };\n\n new Chart(ctx, {\n type: 'line',\n plugins: [gapFillPlugin, annotationTextPlugin, targetLabelsPlugin],\n data: {\n labels: years,\n datasets: [\n {\n label: 'Historic emissions',\n data: historicEmissions,\n borderColor: '#0B5EA8',\n backgroundColor: 'transparent',\n borderWidth: 2.5,\n pointRadius: 0,\n pointHoverRadius: 4,\n pointHoverBackgroundColor: '#0B5EA8',\n tension: 0.3,\n fill: false,\n spanGaps: false\n },\n {\n label: '2030 target pathway',\n data: path2030,\n borderColor: '#0B5EA8',\n backgroundColor: 'transparent',\n borderWidth: 2.5,\n borderDash: [8, 5],\n pointRadius: function(context) {\n return context.dataIndex === 16 ? 6 : 0; \/\/ dot at 2030\n },\n pointBackgroundColor: '#0B5EA8',\n pointBorderColor: '#fff',\n pointBorderWidth: 2,\n pointHoverRadius: 5,\n tension: 0.2,\n fill: false,\n spanGaps: false\n },\n {\n label: '2035 target pathway',\n data: path2035,\n borderColor: '#C8391A',\n backgroundColor: 'transparent',\n borderWidth: 2.5,\n borderDash: [8, 5],\n pointRadius: function(context) {\n return context.dataIndex === 21 ? 6 : 0; \/\/ dot at 2035\n },\n pointBackgroundColor: '#C8391A',\n pointBorderColor: '#fff',\n pointBorderWidth: 2,\n pointHoverRadius: 5,\n tension: 0.2,\n fill: false,\n spanGaps: false\n }\n ]\n },\n options: {\n responsive: true,\n maintainAspectRatio: true,\n aspectRatio: 1.7,\n animation: {\n duration: 1200,\n easing: 'easeOutQuart'\n },\n interaction: {\n mode: 'index',\n intersect: false\n },\n layout: {\n padding: {\n top: 10,\n right: 60,\n bottom: 0,\n left: 0\n }\n },\n scales: {\n x: {\n grid: {\n display: false\n },\n ticks: {\n font: {\n family: \"'DM Sans', sans-serif\",\n size: 11\n },\n color: '#888',\n maxRotation: 0,\n autoSkip: false,\n callback: function(value, index) {\n var label = this.getLabelForValue(value);\n if (['2014', '2020', '2030', '2035'].indexOf(label) !== -1) {\n return label;\n }\n return '';\n }\n },\n border: {\n color: '#ddd'\n }\n },\n y: {\n min: 0,\n max: 2.0,\n grid: {\n color: 'rgba(0,0,0,0.06)',\n drawBorder: false\n },\n ticks: {\n font: {\n family: \"'DM Sans', sans-serif\",\n size: 11\n },\n color: '#888',\n callback: function(value) {\n return value.toFixed(1);\n },\n stepSize: 0.2\n },\n border: {\n display: false\n },\n title: {\n display: true,\n text: 'Methane emissions (million tonnes)',\n font: {\n family: \"'DM Sans', sans-serif\",\n size: 11,\n weight: '500'\n },\n color: '#888'\n }\n }\n },\n plugins: {\n legend: {\n display: false\n },\n tooltip: {\n backgroundColor: 'rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.92)',\n titleFont: {\n family: \"'DM Sans', sans-serif\",\n size: 12,\n weight: '600'\n },\n bodyFont: {\n family: \"'DM Sans', sans-serif\",\n size: 11\n },\n padding: 10,\n cornerRadius: 4,\n filter: function(tooltipItem) {\n return tooltipItem.parsed.y !== null;\n },\n callbacks: {\n label: function(context) {\n if (context.parsed.y === null) return '';\n return context.dataset.label + ': ' + context.parsed.y.toFixed(2) + ' Mt';\n }\n }\n },\n annotation: {\n annotations: {}\n }\n }\n }\n });\n }\n\n var observer = new IntersectionObserver(function(entries) {\n entries.forEach(function(entry) {\n if (entry.isIntersecting) {\n loadChartJS(buildChart);\n observer.unobserve(container);\n }\n });\n }, { threshold: 0.5 });\n\n observer.observe(container);\n})();\n<\/script>\n\n<\/body>\n<\/html>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That target is already a significant concession from the federal target \u2014 a 72% reduction from 2012 levels by 2030. Alberta gets five extra years and a more favourable baseline. The Environmental Defense Fund has\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.edf.org\/media\/edf-statement-methane-equivalency-agreement-principle-between-canada-and-alberta-shows\">said<\/a> that giving Alberta a five-year extension on the 2030 target makes the regulations 36% less effective and wastes up to $530 million in natural gas that could otherwise be captured and sold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But beyond that, two things stand out about what the agreement leaves out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, there is no mention of the federal government’s own 2030 target \u2014 a 72% reduction from 2012 levels \u2014 which was finalized in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/canada-unveils-final-methane-rules-confirms-5-year-delay-for-alberta-to-comply\/\">Enhanced Methane Regulations<\/a> published in December 2025 and applies to all of Canada. <br>Environment Minister Dabrusin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=bdFdV-1yJHk&t=443s\">told CBC’s Power and Politics<\/a> in December that Alberta’s 2035 target is in addition to, not a replacement for, the 2030 target. But the agreement in principle is silent on how that earlier deadline will be enforced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, the agreement commits both governments to jointly select an independent third party to conduct methane modelling and verify results. It does not, however, specify whether the third party will rely on actual atmospheric measurement \u2014 satellites, aircraft, vehicle-based monitoring \u2014 or on the theoretical modelling and industry self-reporting that Alberta currently uses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That matters \u2014 because independent research shows that Alberta’s approach to measuring methane, relying on industry self-reporting, may understate actual emissions by roughly half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Measurement Problem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One week before the agreement in principle was announced, the Pembina Institute published a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/media-release\/alberta-methane-data-dramatically-underestimates-emissions-levels\">technical analysis<\/a> that challenges the centrepiece of Alberta’s case for self-regulation: the province’s claim to have reached its 2025 methane reduction target \u2014 a 45% cut from 2014 levels \u2014 two years ahead of schedule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html lang=\"en\">\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n<title>The Measurement Gap \u2014 mydamnac.com<\/title>\n<style>\n body {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 20px;\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n .chart-container {\n max-width: 780px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n position: relative;\n }\n .chart-title {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 20px;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #1a1a1a;\n margin-bottom: 6px;\n line-height: 1.3;\n }\n .chart-subtitle {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 12px;\n font-weight: 400;\n color: #555;\n margin-bottom: 18px;\n line-height: 1.5;\n }\n .chart-wrapper {\n position: relative;\n width: 100%;\n }\n .chart-source {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 10px;\n color: #999;\n margin-top: 8px;\n line-height: 1.4;\n }\n .chart-callout {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 11px;\n color: #555;\n margin-top: 12px;\n padding: 10px 14px;\n background: #f8f8f8;\n border-left: 3px solid #C8391A;\n line-height: 1.5;\n }\n .chart-callout strong {\n color: #1a1a1a;\n }\n<\/style>\n<\/head>\n<body>\n\n<div class=\"chart-container\" id=\"measurement-gap-container\">\n <div class=\"chart-title\">The Methane Measurement Gap<\/div>\n <div class=\"chart-subtitle\">Alberta claims a 52% cut in oil and gas methane since 2014. Federal data, incorporating independent measurement, puts it at 35% \u2014 from a baseline nearly twice as high.<\/div>\n <div class=\"chart-wrapper\">\n <canvas id=\"measurementGapChart\"><\/canvas>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"chart-source\">\n Data adapted from Pembina Institute, <em>Moving Forward on Methane<\/em> (March 2026), using Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Inventory Report 1990\u20132023 and Government of Alberta data. Chart: mydamnac.com\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<script>\n(function() {\n var container = document.getElementById('measurement-gap-container');\n var chartBuilt = false;\n\n function loadChartJS(callback) {\n var script = document.createElement('script');\n script.src = 'https:\/\/cdn.jsdelivr.net\/npm\/chart.js@4.4.7\/dist\/chart.umd.min.js';\n script.onload = function() {\n var annotationScript = document.createElement('script');\n annotationScript.src = 'https:\/\/cdn.jsdelivr.net\/npm\/chartjs-plugin-annotation@3.0.1\/dist\/chartjs-plugin-annotation.min.js';\n annotationScript.onload = callback;\n document.head.appendChild(annotationScript);\n };\n document.head.appendChild(script);\n }\n\n function buildChart() {\n if (chartBuilt) return;\n chartBuilt = true;\n\n var ctx = document.getElementById('measurementGapChart').getContext('2d');\n\n var years = ['2014', '2015', '2016', '2017', '2018', '2019', '2020', '2021', '2022', '2023'];\n\n \/\/ Absolute methane emissions (kt) \u2014 approximated from Pembina Figure 1\n \/\/ Federal NIR data (incorporates independent aerial measurement)\n var nirEmissions = [1930, 1800, 1600, 1500, 1440, 1400, 1350, 1380, 1340, 1255];\n\n \/\/ Alberta government data (industry self-reporting \/ estimation)\n var abGovEmissions = [1040, 990, 890, 840, 800, 760, 700, 660, 580, 500];\n\n \/\/ Custom plugin to draw the shaded gap area\n var gapFillPlugin = {\n id: 'gapFill',\n beforeDatasetsDraw: function(chart) {\n var meta0 = chart.getDatasetMeta(0); \/\/ NIR\n var meta1 = chart.getDatasetMeta(1); \/\/ AB gov\n var ctx = chart.ctx;\n\n ctx.save();\n ctx.beginPath();\n\n for (var i = 0; i < meta0.data.length; i++) {\n var pt = meta0.data[i];\n if (i === 0) ctx.moveTo(pt.x, pt.y);\n else ctx.lineTo(pt.x, pt.y);\n }\n\n for (var j = meta1.data.length - 1; j >= 0; j--) {\n var pt2 = meta1.data[j];\n ctx.lineTo(pt2.x, pt2.y);\n }\n\n ctx.closePath();\n ctx.fillStyle = 'rgba(200, 57, 26, 0.07)';\n ctx.fill();\n ctx.restore();\n }\n };\n\n \/\/ Custom plugin to draw endpoint annotations with canvas text\n var endpointLabelsPlugin = {\n id: 'endpointLabels',\n afterDraw: function(chart) {\n var ctx = chart.ctx;\n var meta0 = chart.getDatasetMeta(0); \/\/ NIR\n var meta1 = chart.getDatasetMeta(1); \/\/ AB gov\n\n var nirPt = meta0.data[meta0.data.length - 1];\n var abPt = meta1.data[meta1.data.length - 1];\n\n var xOffset = 16;\n\n \/\/ --- Federal data annotation (above the NIR endpoint) ---\n ctx.save();\n ctx.textAlign = 'left';\n\n \/\/ \"Federal Data\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 11px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('Federal Data', nirPt.x + xOffset, nirPt.y - 28);\n\n \/\/ \"~1,255 kt\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 13px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#0B5EA8';\n ctx.fillText('~1,255 kt', nirPt.x + xOffset, nirPt.y - 13);\n\n \/\/ \"-35% vs. 2014\"\n ctx.font = '10px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#6a9fd0';\n ctx.fillText('-35% vs. 2014', nirPt.x + xOffset, nirPt.y + 2);\n\n ctx.restore();\n\n \/\/ --- Alberta data annotation (below the AB gov endpoint) ---\n ctx.save();\n ctx.textAlign = 'left';\n\n \/\/ \"Alberta Data\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 11px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#1a1a1a';\n ctx.fillText('Alberta Data', abPt.x + xOffset, abPt.y + 16);\n\n \/\/ \"~500 kt\"\n ctx.font = 'bold 13px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#1a1a1a';\n ctx.fillText('~500 kt', abPt.x + xOffset, abPt.y + 31);\n\n \/\/ \"-52% vs. 2014\"\n ctx.font = '10px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n ctx.fillStyle = '#888';\n ctx.fillText('-52% vs. 2014', abPt.x + xOffset, abPt.y + 46);\n\n ctx.restore();\n\n \/\/ --- Gap bracket ---\n var gapTopY = nirPt.y + 10;\n var gapBottomY = abPt.y - 10;\n var gapX = nirPt.x + 6;\n var gapMidY = (gapTopY + gapBottomY) \/ 2;\n\n ctx.save();\n ctx.setLineDash([3, 3]);\n ctx.strokeStyle = '#C8391A';\n ctx.lineWidth = 1.5;\n ctx.beginPath();\n ctx.moveTo(gapX, gapTopY);\n ctx.lineTo(gapX, gapBottomY);\n ctx.stroke();\n ctx.restore();\n\n \/\/ Gap label\n ctx.save();\n ctx.textAlign = 'center';\n\n \/\/ Background pill\n var pillText = '755 kt gap';\n ctx.font = 'bold 10px DM Sans, sans-serif';\n var textWidth = ctx.measureText(pillText).width;\n var pillPadH = 6;\n var pillPadV = 4;\n var pillX = gapX;\n var pillY = gapMidY;\n\n ctx.fillStyle = 'rgba(255,255,255,0.92)';\n ctx.beginPath();\n ctx.roundRect(\n pillX - textWidth\/2 - pillPadH,\n pillY - 7 - pillPadV,\n textWidth + pillPadH * 2,\n 14 + pillPadV * 2,\n 3\n );\n ctx.fill();\n\n ctx.fillStyle = '#C8391A';\n ctx.fillText(pillText, pillX, pillY + 3);\n\n ctx.restore();\n }\n };\n\n new Chart(ctx, {\n type: 'line',\n plugins: [gapFillPlugin, endpointLabelsPlugin],\n data: {\n labels: years,\n datasets: [\n {\n label: 'Federal data (National Inventory Report)',\n data: nirEmissions,\n borderColor: '#0B5EA8',\n backgroundColor: 'transparent',\n borderWidth: 2.5,\n pointRadius: function(context) {\n return context.dataIndex === nirEmissions.length - 1 ? 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When independent researchers use actual measurement \u2014 satellite data, aircraft surveys, ground-level monitoring \u2014 the picture looks very different. Federal government data puts Alberta’s reductions at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/media-release\/alberta-methane-data-dramatically-underestimates-emissions-levels\">35% below 2014 levels<\/a>\u00a0as of 2023, not the 52% the province claims. And the broader body of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/blog\/methane-state-play-part-2-measurement-matters\">peer-reviewed research<\/a>\u00a0suggests actual emissions may be\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/media-release\/alberta-methane-data-dramatically-underestimates-emissions-levels\">up to 90% higher<\/a>\u00a0than Alberta’s official estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alberta’s approach lowers the bar for the emissions it needs to cut to reach its targets. Canada’s National Observer\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2026\/03\/10\/news\/methane-emissions-alberta-federal-mou-data\">reported<\/a> that if the equivalency agreement relies on federal data, industry needs to cut roughly 8 megatonnes of methane. If it relies on Alberta’s numbers, the required reduction drops to about 3.5 megatonnes. Less than half the effort for the same headline target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">None of this haggling over measurement should be necessary. British Columbia uses federal data to track its methane progress, has regulated reductions of 75% by 2030 from 2014 levels \u2014 five years earlier than what Alberta is now proposing \u2014 and has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/media-release\/federal-methane-regulations-well-designed-their-effect-will-be-decided-alberta-mou\">cut emissions by 51%<\/a> while <em>increasing<\/em> natural gas production by more than 67%. The province has demonstrated that strong methane regulation imposes no penalty on production. Alberta has not made that case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Pattern of Behaviour<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alberta is rejecting a perfectly good federal framework for measuring methane \u2014 one that other provinces already use. The federal government has tried to meet the province halfway, negotiating an arrangement that gives Alberta its own approach while keeping the numbers credible. Alberta agreed in principle. And then, within 48 hours, it moved to undermine what it had just signed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately, this is forming a pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html lang=\"en\">\n<head>\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n<title>A Pattern of Behaviour \u2014 mydamnac.com<\/title>\n<style>\n body {\n margin: 0;\n padding: 20px;\n background: #ffffff;\n }\n .timeline-container {\n max-width: 780px;\n margin: 0 auto;\n position: relative;\n }\n .timeline-title {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 20px;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #1a1a1a;\n margin-bottom: 6px;\n line-height: 1.3;\n }\n .timeline-subtitle {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 12px;\n font-weight: 400;\n color: #555;\n margin-bottom: 28px;\n line-height: 1.5;\n }\n\n .timeline {\n position: relative;\n padding-left: 0;\n }\n\n .timeline-entry {\n display: flex;\n gap: 0;\n margin-bottom: 0;\n position: relative;\n }\n .timeline-entry:last-child {\n margin-bottom: 0;\n }\n\n \/* Year column *\/\n .timeline-year {\n width: 80px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n text-align: right;\n padding-right: 24px;\n padding-top: 16px;\n }\n .timeline-year-label {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 14px;\n font-weight: 700;\n color: #1a1a1a;\n line-height: 1;\n }\n .timeline-year-sub {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 10px;\n font-weight: 400;\n color: #999;\n margin-top: 3px;\n }\n\n \/* Center line *\/\n .timeline-track {\n width: 32px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n position: relative;\n display: flex;\n flex-direction: column;\n align-items: center;\n }\n .timeline-track::before {\n content: '';\n position: absolute;\n top: 0;\n bottom: 0;\n width: 2px;\n background: #ddd;\n left: 50%;\n transform: translateX(-50%);\n }\n .timeline-entry:first-child .timeline-track::before {\n top: 24px;\n }\n .timeline-entry:last-child .timeline-track::before {\n bottom: 50%;\n }\n\n \/* Content cards *\/\n .timeline-content {\n flex: 1;\n padding: 12px 0 28px 16px;\n }\n\n .timeline-card {\n border-radius: 6px;\n padding: 14px 16px;\n margin-bottom: 8px;\n position: relative;\n }\n\n .timeline-card-agree {\n background: #f0f6fc;\n border-left: 3px solid #0B5EA8;\n }\n .timeline-card-undercut {\n background: #fdf2f0;\n border-left: 3px solid #C8391A;\n }\n\n .timeline-card-label {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 9px;\n font-weight: 700;\n letter-spacing: 0.08em;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n margin-bottom: 5px;\n }\n .timeline-card-agree .timeline-card-label {\n color: #0B5EA8;\n }\n .timeline-card-undercut .timeline-card-label {\n color: #C8391A;\n }\n\n .timeline-card-text {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 12px;\n font-weight: 400;\n color: #333;\n line-height: 1.5;\n }\n .timeline-card-text strong {\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #1a1a1a;\n }\n\n \/* Arrow between cards *\/\n .timeline-arrow {\n display: flex;\n align-items: center;\n gap: 6px;\n padding: 2px 0 2px 16px;\n margin-bottom: 8px;\n }\n .timeline-arrow-line {\n width: 20px;\n height: 0;\n border-top: 2px solid #C8391A;\n position: relative;\n }\n .timeline-arrow-line::after {\n content: '';\n position: absolute;\n right: -1px;\n top: -5px;\n width: 0;\n height: 0;\n border-left: 6px solid #C8391A;\n border-top: 4px solid transparent;\n border-bottom: 4px solid transparent;\n }\n .timeline-arrow-text {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 10px;\n font-weight: 600;\n color: #C8391A;\n text-transform: uppercase;\n letter-spacing: 0.05em;\n }\n\n \/* Dots on timeline *\/\n .timeline-dot {\n width: 12px;\n height: 12px;\n border-radius: 50%;\n background: #0B5EA8;\n border: 3px solid #fff;\n box-shadow: 0 0 0 2px #0B5EA8;\n position: relative;\n z-index: 2;\n margin-top: 18px;\n flex-shrink: 0;\n }\n\n .timeline-source {\n font-family: 'DM Sans', sans-serif;\n font-size: 10px;\n color: #999;\n margin-top: 16px;\n line-height: 1.4;\n }\n<\/style>\n<\/head>\n<body>\n\n<div class=\"timeline-container\">\n <div class=\"timeline-title\">A Pattern of Behaviour<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-subtitle\">Deals on climate policy with Alberta have a tendency to be undermined.<\/div>\n\n <div class=\"timeline\">\n\n <!-- Entry 1: 2018 -->\n <div class=\"timeline-entry\">\n <div class=\"timeline-year\">\n <div class=\"timeline-year-label\">2015\u20132018<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-year-sub\">Trans Mountain<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-track\">\n <div class=\"timeline-dot\"><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-content\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card timeline-card-agree\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card-label\">The Agreement<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card-text\">Alberta agrees to a <strong>100-megatonne cap on oil sands emissions<\/strong>, a price on pollution, and strong methane regulations. Industry claims to support the plan. In exchange, Ottawa approves the Trans Mountain Pipeline and eventually purchases it for <strong>$4.5 billion<\/strong> to ensure its completion when Kinder Morgan abandons the project.<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow\">\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow-line\"><\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow-text\">Then what happened<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card timeline-card-undercut\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card-label\">The Reversal<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card-text\">The pipeline’s cost eventually reached <strong>$34 billion<\/strong>. Industry opposes new regulations. The emissions cap was never implemented. Alberta pulled out of the national climate plan. Former Environment Minister Catherine McKenna: <strong>“I would never trust them.”<\/strong><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <!-- Entry 2: Nov 2025 -->\n <div class=\"timeline-entry\">\n <div class=\"timeline-year\">\n <div class=\"timeline-year-label\">Nov 2025<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-year-sub\">MOU \/ Carbon pricing<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-track\">\n <div class=\"timeline-dot\"><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-content\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card timeline-card-agree\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card-label\">The Agreement<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card-text\">Canada-Alberta MOU signed. Ottawa scraps its emissions cap, drops clean electricity regulations, delays methane targets by 5 years. Alberta commits to ramp industrial carbon pricing to an effective credit price of <strong>$130\/tonne<\/strong>.<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow\">\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow-line\"><\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow-text\">Within days<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card timeline-card-undercut\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card-label\">The Reversal<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card-text\">Alberta makes regulatory changes to its TIER system that loosen emissions benchmarks for oil producers, collapsing demand for carbon credits. Actual trading price falls to <strong>below $20\/tonne<\/strong>. Pembina Institute calls it “moving the goalposts before negotiations had begun.”<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <!-- Entry 3: Mar 2026 -->\n <div class=\"timeline-entry\">\n <div class=\"timeline-year\">\n <div class=\"timeline-year-label\">Mar 2026<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-year-sub\">Methane<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-track\">\n <div class=\"timeline-dot\"><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-content\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card timeline-card-agree\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card-label\">The Agreement<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card-text\">Agreement in principle on methane. Alberta to regulate its own emissions with a target of <strong>75% reduction by 2035<\/strong>. Independent third party to verify results.<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow\">\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow-line\"><\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-arrow-text\">Within 48 hours<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card timeline-card-undercut\">\n <div class=\"timeline-card-label\">The Reversal<\/div>\n <div class=\"timeline-card-text\">Alberta Energy Regulator releases new Directive 060 amendments with <strong>weaker standards<\/strong> than federal regulations. No ban on routine venting. No phase-out of emitting pneumatics. No equivalent leak detection requirements. The Pembina Institute calls it <strong>“An agreement to cooperate, followed by immediate action that obviously contradicts it.”<\/strong><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n <div class=\"timeline-source\">\n Sources: Pembina Institute; The Energy Mix; Canada’s National Observer; Environmental Defense Fund; Government of Canada. Chart: mydamnac.com\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/body>\n<\/html>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/guilbeault-resigns-as-smith-declares-crushing-victory\/\">Canada-Alberta MOU was signed<\/a>\u00a0on November 27, 2025, Ottawa made sweeping concessions \u2014 scrapping its planned oil and gas emissions cap, dropping clean electricity regulations in Alberta, delaying methane targets by five years. In exchange, Alberta committed to meaningful industrial carbon pricing, the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project, and cooperation on methane. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within days though, Alberta\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/alberta-weakens-industrial-carbon-price-just-days-after-signing-mou\/\">pushed through regulatory changes<\/a>\u00a0that flooded its carbon credit market with additional tradeable credits,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/calgary\/alberta-industrial-carbon-tax-compliance-headline-vs-market-price-9.7002223\">crashing the actual price to below $20 per tonne<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 in a system where the MOU committed the province to an effective price of $130. Pembina\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/media-release\/albertas-move-undermine-industrial-carbon-pricing-challenges-integrity-grand-bargain\">called it<\/a>\u00a0moving the goalposts before negotiations had begun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now the same thing has happened with methane. The agreement in principle was signed Tuesday and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/breaking-alberta-releases-weaker-methane-regs-48-hours-after-closing-deal-with-ottawa\/\">weaker AER regulations were released Thursday<\/a>. Pembina’s Bryant confirmed the parallel: “I think this is a fair comparison. An agreement to cooperate, followed by immediate action that obviously contradicts the letter and the spirit of the agreements.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some say this pattern goes back even further. In 2018, the <a href=\"https:\/\/thenarwhal.ca\/trans-mountain-pipeline-explainer\/\">Trudeau government bought the Trans Mountain pipeline<\/a> in exchange for Alberta’s commitment to climate action. The oil industry <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2025\/11\/25\/news\/never-trust-them-catherine-mckenna-carney-smith-deal\">said it supported the plan<\/a>. Then they fought the regulations they had agreed to. Catherine McKenna, the environment minister who negotiated that deal, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2025\/11\/25\/news\/never-trust-them-catherine-mckenna-carney-smith-deal\">was asked recently<\/a> whether she would trust the oil companies again. Her answer: “I would never trust them.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All this raises a question that Canadians deserve an honest answer to: can this process work when one party consistently signs agreements and then immediately takes steps to undercut them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Good Faith Question<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The MOU was a significant concession by Ottawa. The federal government gave up the oil and gas emissions cap \u2014 a regulation that had not yet taken effect but represented real policy ambition. It suspended the Clean Electricity Regulations in Alberta. It delayed methane targets by five years, at a cost that Pembina has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pembina.org\/media-release\/federal-methane-regulations-well-designed-their-effect-will-be-decided-alberta-mou\">quantified<\/a>: 1.9 million extra tonnes of methane released into the atmosphere, equivalent to 53 million tonnes of CO\u2082 \u2014 the same as the annual pollution from roughly half the cars on Canada’s roads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These were not symbolic gestures. They were effective policies that were helping Canada reduce its emissions \u2014 policies designed to protect Canadians against the worst effects of climate change on our environment, our economy, and our well-being. They were traded away to secure Alberta’s cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And what happened? On carbon pricing, Alberta crashed its own credit market within a week. On methane, Alberta released weaker regulations within 48 hours. On the pipeline \u2014 the centrepiece of the deal \u2014 no private proponent has come forward, and Premier Smith has already said the April deadline will be missed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At some point, you have to ask: what exactly are we doing here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alberta claims to have robust provincial climate policies. But it has systematically undermined them \u2014 freezing its carbon price below the federal standard, relying on an honour system for methane measurement, stifling renewable energy investment. Ottawa responds by making concessions, weakening national policies in exchange for commitments that Alberta immediately walks back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian Climate Institute’s Rick Smith <a href=\"https:\/\/climateinstitute.ca\/news\/mou-alberta-canada-risks-unravelling-canada-climate-policy\/\">put it plainly<\/a> when the MOU was signed: “At a time when Canadian climate change policy needed increased certainty, today’s MOU does the opposite. Carve-outs for Alberta invite copycat demands from other provinces and territories, and could trigger more policy fragmentation across Canada.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That fragmentation is already happening. Saskatchewan has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2025\/12\/18\/news\/enough-deals-provinces-just-enforce-law-guilbeault\">defied the federal carbon backstop<\/a>. Nova Scotia demanded its own carve-out. The consumer carbon tax is gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Maybe Guilbeault Was Right<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steven Guilbeault, Canada’s former Minister of Environment and Climate Change, resigned from cabinet over the MOU. It was a dramatic gesture, and at the time, some commentators dismissed it as grandstanding. But maybe his core argument\u00a0deserves a second look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Canada has regulations. The Supreme Court has confirmed that Ottawa has jurisdiction over industrial carbon pricing. The Enhanced Methane Regulations finalized in December 2025 are law. Guilbeault’s position was simple \u2014 we should just enforce them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2025\/12\/18\/news\/enough-deals-provinces-just-enforce-law-guilbeault\">“We have to tell those who want to do that that, ‘actually, you can’t break the law,'”<\/a> he said, “just like you can’t break criminal laws.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His specific warning about carve-outs has been vindicated by events. “If there’s a carve-out for Alberta, then there’ll be a carve-out for everyone else,” he said \u2014 and pointed to exactly what happened with the consumer carbon tax. The Atlantic provinces demanded a carve-out for heating oil. They got it. The tax was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2025\/12\/18\/news\/enough-deals-provinces-just-enforce-law-guilbeault\">scrapped nationally<\/a> within 18 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps, when you bend the rules for an unreliable partner, they see it as an opportunity to break them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am not saying that federal-provincial cooperation is impossible, or that Ottawa should abandon negotiation in favour of unilateral enforcement. The Canadian Climate Institute’s Alison Bailie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theenergymix.com\/alberta-to-set-its-own-methane-regulations-delay-deadline-to-2035-under-draft-deal-with-ottawa\/\">makes a fair point<\/a> that Canada has historically achieved greater emissions reductions when governments work together. Collaboration can work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But collaboration requires good faith from both sides. And good faith means, at a minimum, not releasing regulations that contradict an agreement you signed 48 hours earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At some point, Ottawa will have to decide whether it is negotiating a climate policy \u2014 or negotiating against one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada and Alberta signed a methane agreement in principle on March 25. Forty-eight hours later, Alberta released regulations that undercut it. It’s not the first time a climate deal with Alberta has been followed by steps to weaken it. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":{"post_category":"Canada-Alberta MOU","sub_heading":"Canada's methane deal with Alberta looked like progress. Forty-eight hours later, the province released regulations that undercut it. It's not the first time."},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-28-at-10.27.48-AM.png?fit=1398%2C1050&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1956"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1956\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1977,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1956\/revisions\/1977"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mydamnac.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}