Following my article on The Dirty Dozen, the twelve countries that account for over 70% of global emissions, below is the by-country detail of each nation’s efforts to cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to less than 1.5˚C.
These are all excerpts of the terrific work being done by Climate Action Tracker. For even more details, please visit their site at climateactiontracker.org.
1. China
Flattening is fine, but reductions are required.
The Climate Action Tracker rates China’s efforts as “Highly Insufficient” in terms of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, with an emissions trajectory that plateaus at high levels rather than decreasing.
China’s greenhouse gas emissions are at critical levels, with no significant reduction expected until after the 2030 peaking target set in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). China’s climate and energy policies are currently not stringent enough to decrease emissions to the levels needed to align with its 2060 carbon neutrality goal.
The country’s economic growth continues to be heavily reliant on fossil fuels, despite its advancements in renewable energy sources and end-use sectors.
Although China has made substantial investments in its energy transition, with renewable capacity surpassing 1,150 GW, and has exceeded its targets for new energy vehicles ahead of schedule, the reliance on coal and other fossil fuels persists.
Coal production, in particular, hit a record high in 2022, and the country has the largest pipeline for new coal power globally.
To stay on track for its net-zero target, China would need to implement more aggressive policies to reduce energy demand, lessen its dependence on fossil fuels, and enhance the scope and effectiveness of its Emissions Trading System (ETS), particularly in high-emitting industries.
Despite the challenges, China’s investments and policy directions show a significant commitment to preparing for a transition away from coal and towards a more sustainable energy future.
The IRA was huge. Now, how about capping oil production?
Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the United States has seen a surge in clean energy investment and development, driving job creation and state-level climate action. However, these positive strides are being undercut by continued expansion in the fossil fuel sector, including record highs in oil and gas production and exports, along with new drilling projects like the Willow project in Alaska. This casts doubt on the nation’s commitment to its climate targets and its ability to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal.
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates U.S. climate targets, actions, and climate finance as “Insufficient,” stating that U.S. efforts thus far will fall short of the necessary 2030 emission reductions. Currently, the U.S. is on a trajectory to achieve only a 28%-34% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030, not the targeted 50%-52%.
Further action is urgently required, including the enactment of proposed emissions standards for vehicles and power plants, halting new fossil fuel exploration, and increasing climate finance—both domestically and internationally. Although the U.S. has committed to a net zero target by 2050, this target has been rated as “Average” due to its coverage and transparency.
The scope of U.S. climate action is under scrutiny, and the CAT emphasizes that more ambitious policy implementation and financial support are crucial for aligning with a 1.5°C pathway.
3. India
Needs to get off of coal, and avoid gas, as it grows.
India has been advancing its renewable energy sector, becoming the fourth largest in the world for renewable capacity in 2022. However, the country’s climate ambitions are being compromised by its ongoing commitment to coal, with plans to significantly increase coal capacity in the latter half of the decade, which runs counter to a 1.5°C-compatible pathway.
India’s Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rating remains “Highly Insufficient,” as the country’s policies do not align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. While India has taken positive steps in its energy generation plans, it is still expected to see a rise in emissions by 2030 due to increased coal usage, which the government is boosting to meet rising electricity demands from extreme heat events.
To improve its climate trajectory, India must halt new coal power capacity and phase out existing plants, avoid increasing natural gas dependency, and enhance its climate targets, indicating a willingness to take bolder steps if international support is available.
Overall, India’s policies signal an urgent need for international support and stronger commitments to transition to a sustainable energy future and meet global climate goals.
Recent good progress indicates even more room to reduce emissions.
The European Union has made considerable advancements in climate policy, especially after the energy crisis induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These policies, if properly executed, could help the EU surpass its current NDC target, suggesting that a more ambitious target could be established. However, the EU’s ongoing investments in fossil fuel infrastructure, including LNG terminals and gas pipelines, threaten its decarbonization goals, leading the Climate Action Tracker to rate the EU’s overall climate action as “Insufficient.”
Through the “Fit for 55” package and the RePowerEU plan, the EU aims for a reduction of 60–61% in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, factoring in land use and forestry (LULUCF), exceeding its “at least 55%” reduction target. Key initiatives involve bolstering the Emissions Trading Scheme, enhancing renewable energy targets to 42.5%, and setting more ambitious goals for energy efficiency and forestry sector sinks. Despite these steps, the EU has not yet updated its NDC in line with these new targets.
Moving forward, to align with the 1.5°C temperature limit, the EU must halt further LNG capacity development and increase its NDC to a net 61% reduction excluding LULUCF. Additionally, the EU should substantially raise its climate finance contributions and revise its strategy to achieve net zero emissions. With plans to present a 2040 target, the EU’s internal goals and support for global emission reductions will be critical in defining its role in meeting the Paris Agreement’s objectives.
5. Russia
Damaging global efforts with dishonest targets, deceitful assumptions, and by promoting dependence on fossil fuels.
Russia’s current climate change mitigation efforts are assessed as minimal by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), with an overall rating of “Critically Insufficient.”
Russia’s 2030 NDC proposes a 30% reduction below 1990 levels which is blatantly disingenuous. The dissolution of the Soviet Union provoked an economic collapse between 1990 and 1995 that saw greenhouse gas emissions fall by over a third. The decline was so substantial that for years afterward, Russia’s emissions remained below the baseline year of 1990, which was used as the reference point for the Kyoto Protocol targets. Russia can achieve this target without any real effort to curtail emissions.
The Russian government’s net zero target for 2060 relies heavily on the assumption that forests will absorb twice as much carbon by 2050 as they do currently—a claim that remains unsubstantiated and fails to account for the massive wildfires in Siberia.
The Russian Energy Strategy to 2035 emphasizes fossil fuel production and export rather than a transition to renewable energy, posing a significant risk for economic sustainability in a future where global markets shift to align with the 1.5°C target.
Russia also falls short on international climate finance, with its contributions rated as “Critically Insufficient.”
The country’s policies show a lack of serious commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as existing policies are expected to lead to a rise in emissions by 2030, contrary to the reductions required under the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
The only good thing that can be said about Russia climate-wise is that its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought to the forefront the global reliance on Russian fossil fuels and the urgency to shift towards cleaner energy sources.
6. Brazil
Lula’s return brings hope for forest preservation and renewables expansion.
In Brazil’s October 2022 general elections, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, commonly known as “Lula,” was elected president, returning to office after having previously served from 2003 to 2010.
Lula’s climate policy marked a significant shift from his predecessor’s, focusing on aggressive action against deforestation, especially in the Amazon, and aiming to curb illegal deforestation entirely.
He committed to reasserting Brazil’s role in international climate agreements and strengthening the country’s participation in global climate discussions, consistent with the Paris Agreement’s objectives.
His administration signaled a move towards prioritizing renewable energy sources and restoring environmental protections and enforcement, reversing the deregulatory trend of the Bolsonaro era.
Lula’s presidency raised hopes for Brazil to adopt a more proactive stance in international climate policy and a more sustainable domestic environmental agenda.
7. Indonesia
Needs international help to cut dependence on coal and deforestation.
Indonesia’s climate policies and targets have been downgraded to “Critically Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker, mainly due to a significant increase in emissions in 2022 and the expansion of its off-grid coal power pipeline.
The country’s reliance on coal power has led to a 21% increase in emissions in 2022, and plans indicate further increases, conflicting with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.
Despite progress in renewable energy projects, such as the launch of the largest floating solar PV plant in Southeast Asia and Indonesia’s first green hydrogen refinery, along with the initiation of the first Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in Southeast Asia, these efforts are overshadowed by the continued growth in emissions.
The country’s deforestation rates continue to be a concern, contributing significantly to its greenhouse gas emissions, although efforts in forest conservation and management are underway.
Indonesia’s Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) faces challenges due to insufficient financing and the form of loans over grants. International support will be crucial for Indonesia to transition away from coal and realize its renewable energy potential. With the right support, Indonesia has the opportunity to update its climate targets and adopt more robust policies that reflect the urgent need for decarbonization.
To strengthen climate action, Indonesia needs to implement reforms, develop a robust decarbonization pathway, particularly for off-grid power, enforce ambitious forestry policies, and establish stringent standards for bioenergy development
8. Japan
Chasing “cleaner coal” and bridge fuels is holding back progress on renewables.
Japan’s Green Transformation (GX) Basic Policy, adopted in February 2023, emphasizes economic growth and energy security over ambitious decarbonization. It lacks concrete emission reduction targets and promotes “clean coal” technologies, which are inconsistent with the 1.5°C global warming limit.
This policy direction, including reliance on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and fossil gas as a transitional fuel, has led to Japan’s climate targets and actions being rated as “Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker.
Japan’s 2030 National Determined Contributions (NDC) target is also deemed insufficient, failing to align with the 1.5°C limit.
Additionally, Japan’s net zero target is rated as “poor” due to a lack of detailed planning, and its international climate finance contributions are rated as “Highly Insufficient”.
Moving forward, Japan needs to focus on phasing out coal power generation by 2030, halt overseas financing of fossil fuel projects, scale up renewable energy capacity, and implement a more effective carbon pricing scheme to align with a more ambitious 1.5°C pathway.
While some positive steps have been taken in sectors like steel and building standards, Japan’s overall approach, including coal power and international fossil fuel investments, would lead to global warming over 2°C, potentially up to 3°C, if adopted worldwide.
9. IRAN
Needs to recognize climate change as a critical national issue and join the global community fighting it.
Iran has not ratified the Paris Agreement and climate action remains a low priority, reflected in its “Critically Insufficient” rating from the Climate Action Tracker.
Economic challenges have overtaken climate concerns in national priorities, as evidenced by the Seventh Five-Year Development Plan that focuses on economic recovery without addressing mitigation or setting renewable energy goals.
Any approach to addressing climate change by Iran has been largely constrained by a decade of economic sanctions, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing high inflation, leading to limited progress in climate policy and renewable energy development.
Iran’s emissions did rise in 2021 during a period of economic recovery, and without significant policy change, emissions are projected to continue to increase.
Internally, Iran faces climate-driven issues like droughts and floods, which contribute to internal migration and social challenges.
For substantial improvement in its climate action rating, Iran would need to ratify the Paris Agreement, set more ambitious emissions reduction targets, and implement corresponding policies.
10. Saudi Arabia
Promoting unproven carbon capture to justify expanding fossil fuel production.
Saudi Arabia’s climate policies and commitments are rated as “Critically Insufficient” by the Climate Action Tracker, reflecting minimal action and inconsistency with the 1.5°C temperature limit.
The country’s emissions are expected to rise significantly by 2030, with plans to increase oil output. Despite announcing renewable energy targets, progress has been minimal.
Saudi Arabia promotes carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and invests in projects that increase fossil fuel demand in developing countries. The 2030 and 2060 climate commitments lack transparency and rely heavily on CCS, failing to address Saudi Arabia’s role as a major crude oil exporter.
The government’s approach undermines global efforts to phase out fossil fuels, and its net zero target for 2060 lacks credibility and detail.
To improve, Saudi Arabia should develop an economic diversification plan away from fossil fuels, increase renewable energy deployment, and update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with a clearer emissions reduction target.
11. Mexico
Regressing with renewed support for oil investment and gamesmanship in target-setting.
Mexico’s climate action trajectory has been regressing, with a renewed emphasis on fossil fuels and dismantling of climate-related policies and institutions.
Under President Lopez Obrador, Mexico has prioritized economic recovery over climate action, reflected in investments in oil refineries and fossil fuel subsidies in the transport sector, rather than renewable energy and climate governance.
The country’s 2030 climate commitment, updated in November 2022, is seen as a step backward compared to its 2016 targets, leading to higher projected emissions and resulting in a “Critically Insufficient” rating from the Climate Action Tracker.
This lack of ambition is compounded by a lack of transparency in accounting for forest emissions and technical adjustment to its target-setting method. These combine to give the appearance of setting meaningful emission targets without actually cutting emissions.
Mexico increased the percentage reduction in its latest target, but it did so by increasing the expected emissions in its “business as usual scenario” baseline and by increasing the assumptions around the contribution from forest emissions sinks.
Overall, the new target still results in higher emissions than previously committed and Mexico is expected to easily meet this unambitious target as its emissions continue to rise through 2030.
To align with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway, Mexico must reverse its current policies, moving away from fossil fuels, enhancing renewable energy, and addressing emissions in sectors such as transport.
11. Canada
Not as climate-friendly as you’d think, eh?
Canada’s climate policy has been inconsistent with its oil and gas sector expansion, undermining its commitment to climate action.
The country approved a large offshore oil and gas project and continues to support the Trans Mountain pipeline, which faces profitability challenges, reflecting a disconnect between its climate goals and policy actions.
Canada’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2022 regressed from previous targets, and despite a downward trend in emissions, a significant gap persists between current policies, the NDC target, and what is necessary for 1.5°C compatibility. The Climate Action Tracker has rated Canada’s efforts as “Highly Insufficient.”
There’s a clear discrepancy between Canada’s domestic actions and the global decarbonization pathway as outlined by international bodies like the IEA. The country’s climate commitments are vague, and recent decisions, such as increased support for LNG exports, are in direct conflict with the 1.5°C target. Although emissions are starting to decrease, Canada’s strategy lacks specificity on achieving net zero, particularly regarding policies and measures for transition.
The significant reliance on land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) raises concerns about the credibility of its net zero target, especially given Canada’s ongoing oil and gas production and export plans for 2050.
Overall, Canada needs more ambitious targets, a rapid policy implementation that aligns with the urgency of the climate crisis, and a shift away from fossil fuels to bridge the gap between its current trajectory and a sustainable, climate-resilient future.
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