Where the hope is

For the week ending September 21 – Beneath the grim headlines, momentum for a clean future is gathering strength.
10 minute read

Reviewing the week’s climate news, it’s easy to sink into despair. Each day brings new stories of death and destruction from human-driven heating—floods, fires, droughts, and deadly heat. The risks are cascading, compounding, and concurrent. Governments continue to fall short of their promises to cut fossil fuels. Some, like Canada, are even doubling down—pursuing new pipelines and LNG projects just when we most need to move off them.

And yet, there is hope. The paradox of this moment is that while climate policy may be stumbling, the climate economy has become unstoppable. The clean energy transition is no longer a distant vision but a reality accelerating under its own momentum. Investment in renewables already outpaces fossil fuels two to one. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of power in most of the world, making them the default choice for new generation. Electric vehicles are surging across global markets. The money is flowing into clean energy because it makes business sense—and no government, no matter how determined to prop up the past, can turn this ship around. It may not be moving as fast as we need, but the direction is irreversible. The fossil era is in retreat, and the clean economy is rising.

Hope is also visible in people. In New York, Climate Week opened with record turnout after fears the event might not happen. On Sunday, U.S. activists held more than 450 rallies to celebrate the growth of solar power and efficiency. On Saturday, thousands marched in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, demanding that our governments make climate change their top priority. This persistence shows that public support for action remains resilient and strong.

That matters because physics doesn’t care about politics. This past summer of killer heat, smoke, fire, and flood may be the best we will see for the rest of our lives if we don’t act. But the hope is real: in the economy, in technology, and in people. The clean energy transition is underway, and it cannot be stopped. The tools to protect our common home are already in our hands. The only question is whether we will move fast enough to use them—before the window closes.

The Big Picture

This week felt like “back to school” for government, with Canada’s Parliament resuming and the UN General Assembly convening. The new legislative session sparked some sharp reflections on the state of the climate crisis.

Canada Policy

A demonstrator holds a sign reading ‘A Better World is Possible’ as a group of protesters march down Sussex Drive in Ottawa during the ‘Draw the Line’ protest on Sept. 20, 2025. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press)

A new report predicts that Canada is unlikely to meet its 2030 climate target because emissions from oil and gas, especially from oil sands, continue to increase. Currently, Canada is on track for only a 20–25% reduction by 2030, far short of the legally required 40–45%. Meanwhile, news broke that another BC-based LNG project — the Ksi Lisims LNG project – has been approved, and yet another is being promoted in Newfoundland. All of these developments come amid increasing criticism of the Carney Government’s efforts to boost Canada’s fossil fuel sector.

Economic Impact

Forecasts show insured losses could double within a decade, prompting warnings that Canada faces a looming financial shock—one that could trigger real estate devaluation, mortgage defaults, and wider financial contagion. Meanwhile, new analyses highlight billions in losses from recent heatwaves in the EU and Bangladesh.

US Policy

A report from one of the U.S.’ top scientific bodies says long-term observations “confirm unequivocally” that human emissions are warming the planet and raising new dangers. | Patricia de Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released a report confirming unequivocally that human emissions are driving climate change, already harming Americans’ health and welfare, and worsening with every ton of greenhouse gases emitted. The findings directly rebut a recent Energy Department report downplaying climate risks—even as the U.S. government continues to undermine climate action at home and abroad. Meanwhile, rallies in support of clean energy were planned nationwide for Sunday.

COP

Guardian graphic – Source: Australian Climate ServiceNotes: *Data for these bars has been extracted from the National Climate Risk Assessment PDF, and so approximates the original values. The cities were selected by the Australian Climate Service

After releasing a report forecasting the severe consequences of climate change on the country, Australia announced a target to cut emissions by 62% to 70% by 2035, disappointing many critics who argued for a 75% reduction goal.  It’s now even more likely that the EU will fail to agree on its 2035 target before COP.  As more of the world’s hope for climate leadership is pinned on China, observers are setting low expectations for the anticipated announcement of their 2035 target next week.

Fossil Fuels

Global oil and gas production in 2024 (grey bar) and in the future with no investment (light blue) and with investment in existing and approved projects (dark blue). Demand under the 1.5C-compliant “NZE scenario” is shown by the green circles. Credit: IEA.

The IEA’s updated long-term oil and gas demand forecast reignited the chicken-and-egg debate: climate advocates point to its finding that no new development is needed if countries honour their climate policies, while industry boosters insist expansion is essential if they don’t. At the same time, oil companies, facing weak prices and oversupply, announced sweeping layoffs—protecting profits but further eroding their claims as engines of job growth.

Renewable Energy

Acciona’s Forty Mile wind farm in Alberta. Photo courtesy: Acciona

Clean energy momentum is accelerating worldwide. In the U.S., job growth and record gains in states like Texas and California clash with federal efforts to tilt policy back toward fossil fuels. Canada faces surging electricity demand that could spur a massive renewables buildout, while India’s falling power-sector emissions and record-low solar-plus-storage bids show how clean energy is outcompeting coal. Across the globe, innovation continues to push the sector forward.

Finance

This composite image shows signage from Canada’s six big banks: Scotiabank, Royal Bank, TD Bank, Bank of Montreal, CIBC and National Bank. (The Canadian Press)

Canada’s banks are financing fossil fuels at twice the rate of clean energy, even as global capital shifts toward sustainability. Investors are increasingly wary of companies without credible climate strategies, while in the U.S., new policies are making it harder to access information on corporate climate risks or press management for change.

Transportation

Two initiatives to curb emissions from international shipping and air travel are hoping to advance despite pushback. Together, these sectors produce about 8% of global emissions—enough to rank as the world’s third-largest emitter after China and the U.S.—yet their pollution falls outside national accountability frameworks.

Business Emissions

Source: Bain.com

Despite gloomy headlines about faltering national climate policies, a new Bain study underscores the rising strength of the global climate economy: more companies are shifting spending to sustainable suppliers and cutting ties with those that aren’t. At the same time, major firms are locking in large renewable power contracts and carbon removal off-take deals to shrink their footprints—even as questions grow over the durability of carbon capture solutions.

Legal Challenges

Canada’s new greenwashing laws have drawn sharp criticism from business, but the country’s largest securities regulator has now launched its first enforcement action in a case that seems to highlight exactly why the rules were needed.

Extreme Heat

A new study concluded over 24,000 people died in Europe this summer from extreme heat, a staggering toll that included Spain’s hottest summer on record, with three heatwaves lasting 36 days and temperatures soaring past 45°C.

Wildfires

Sources: National Burned Area Composite (NBAC)Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) Fuel Types 2024Building Polygons Halifax • Custom analysis by Rory White / Canada’s National Observer

After a summer of record wildfires, awareness is growing of the deadly toll of smoke pollution and the urgent need to protect populations. The risks are compounded by rapid urban expansion into the wildland–urban interface, where the likelihood of property loss and human casualties is rising sharply.

Disease

A provocative article finds fossil fuel air pollution causes millions of deaths and trillions in economic damage each year. Other industries—tobacco, opioids—have been held liable for the harm their products caused. Could fossil fuel companies soon face lawsuits strong enough to drive them out of existence?

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