Failing the Lessons of History

From Carney’s carbon retreat to Trump’s coal revival, this week proved how quickly leaders can forget what the past tried to teach them.
10 minute read

Ten years ago this week, Mark Carney — then Governor of the Bank of England — stood before London’s financial elite and issued one of the most remarkable warnings of our time.

Invited by Lloyd’s of London, one of the insurers most exposed to rising climate-related losses, Carney told the assembled executives they were sleepwalking into an era of mega-risk that lay beyond their usual planning horizons. Climate change, he warned, was not just an environmental problem but a looming threat to financial stability, one so severe that “by the time it becomes a defining issue, it may already be too late.”

He drew lessons from the asbestos industry — predicting that companies might one day face lawsuits for failing to act on climate risks — and pointed out that keeping warming below 2°C meant leaving most of the world’s fossil fuel reserves unburned.

Yet he also saw opportunity: financing the decarbonization of the economy, he said, could be a major growth frontier. That speech helped catalyze a global movement to align finance with climate goals, leading to the creation of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) — a coalition of over 450 financial institutions managing more than $130 trillion in assets committed to the goals of the Paris Agreement.

A decade later, Carney is now Canada’s prime minister — and many are wondering what happened to that conviction.

He has scrapped the federal consumer carbon tax, paused the 2035 zero-emission vehicle mandate, and shifted the government’s focus to promoting fossil fuel project in the name of making Canada a global energy superpower. His new One Canadian Economy Act accelerates approvals for major projects, raising fears of weakened environmental oversight. Regulators have slowed progress on mandatory climate-disclosure rules, and Carney himself has stopped short of reaffirming Canada’s 2030 and 2050 emissions-reduction targets.

The man who once warned of the “tragedy of the horizon” now seems caught in its snare — deferring climate action in the pursuit of short-term economics.

And this week brought another symbolic blow. The Net Zero Banking Alliance — one of the cornerstone initiatives Carney helped launch under GFANZ — officially shut down operations, following the withdrawal of several major U.S. and Canadian banks earlier this year. A decade after Carney’s landmark speech, one of his signature creations has unravelled, undone by the very short-term interests he once warned could imperil our future.

Northern Gateway Pipeline 2.0

He’s not alone in looking backward. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith this week revived plans for a bitumen pipeline to British Columbia’s north coast — a project first proposed 15 years ago and killed after fierce opposition from First Nations, environmentalists, and B.C. residents.

With no private backers willing to propose it, Smith is committing $14 million in public funds to lead the charge and hopes Carney’s new major-projects office will push it through.

To make the project work, Smith is calling for the repeal of the B.C. tanker ban, the cancellation of Canada’s proposed oil-and-gas emissions cap, and even the rollback of clean-electricity standards — all in the name of “testing whether Canada still works as a country.” It’s less a test of federalism than of how far backward we’re willing to go.

Clean Beautiful Coal”

And then there’s Donald Trump, who this week tried to resurrect what he insists on calling “clean, beautiful coal.”

His administration announced $625 million in subsidies and opened 13 million acres of U.S. public land — roughly the size of Nova Scotia — to new coal mining.

But coal’s decline isn’t a story of government interference; it’s a story of economics and public health.

Burning coal remains one of the most harmful ways to generate electricity, both for the environment and for human health, responsible for hundreds of thousands of premature deaths each year. Renewables are cheaper, gas is more efficient, and the coal fleet is aging out of existence. Trump’s plan can’t change that.

So this week felt like a reunion tour of old ideas — leaders replaying the past while the future presses in. The tragedy of the horizon, Carney warned, was our failure to act on threats just beyond our line of sight. A decade later, that horizon has arrived, and we’re still pretending it’s far away.

Here are the other major climate stories from the week of September 29 to October 5, 2025:

CANADA POLICY
2012 photo featuring a person photographing a banner during a demonstration by Vancouver residents protesting the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline. Photo by Flickr/ Chris Yakimov,

After failing to find a private company willing to propose a new bitumen pipeline to British Columbia’s north coast, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced this week that her government will spend $14 million in public funds to develop the project itself. She hopes to have it considered by the new federal Major Projects Office as a priority “nation-building” initiative. The B.C. government and First Nations — who successfully stopped a similar project a decade ago — immediately voiced firm opposition. Meanwhile, analysts continue to warn about the economic and environmental risks of doubling down on fossil fuels. New federal data show Canada is on track to miss its 2030 emissions target, largely due to pro-oil policies — and Ontario’s auditor general reported this week that the province is headed for the same outcome for the same reasons.

US POLICY

Scientists are scrambling to preserve access to climate data as the U.S. government moves to restrict or delete it. Meanwhile, the record-breaking growth of renewable energy is starting to falter under Trump’s rollback of key Biden-era climate and clean-energy policies.

COP

New York Climate Week ended on an unexpectedly optimistic note, even as U.S. policy turns sharply toward rolling back climate action at home and abroad. The EU pledged to finalize its new emissions target ahead of COP, while advocacy groups called on organizers to connect climate negotiations with broader discussions of historical justice and reparations for slavery and colonialism.

POPULAR SENTIMENT
Hollywood actor and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger gestures during a Vatican press conference about climate change in Rome, Italy, September 30, 2025. REUTERS/Remo Casilli

After a few relatively quiet years for the climate movement, growing frustration with government inaction — combined with the rising toll of climate-related disasters — appears to be rekindling public support for climate activism in Canada and around the world.

CARBON PRICING

The EU is preparing to launch the world’s first carbon border adjustment — essentially a tariff on imports from countries without comparable carbon pricing. The measure could strengthen global momentum for “polluter pays” policies, provided the EU can withstand U.S. pressure and potential trade retaliation.

OIL AND GAS SECTOR
Logos of Exxon Mobil are seen in its booth at Gastech, the world’s biggest expo for the gas industry, in Chiba, Japan April 4, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo

The industry saw another round of major layoffs this week, with Imperial Oil announcing plans to cut about 1,000 jobs and close offices in Calgary, while ExxonMobil will lay off 2,000 workers. At the same time, companies are racing to expand LNG infrastructure — especially in the U.S. — even as analysts warn that a long-term supply glut may be on the horizon.

COAL
Workers transport and organize mounds of coal on a hilltop near an Arch Coal facility in Beckley, West Virginia, U.S., April 11, 2025. REUTERS/Adrees Latif/File photo

If there were any doubts about Trump’s affection for the “old economy,” his administration erased them this week by announcing new funding and plans to open public lands — an area roughly the size of Nova Scotia — to coal mining leases. Analysts, however, argue that a coal revival is highly unlikely, given the industry’s economic decline and the rapid rise of cheaper, cleaner energy alternatives.

RENEWABLE ENERGY

Renewable energy continues to set new records in California, highlighting the state’s rapid transition toward clean power. At the same time, rooftop solar is gaining attention as a way to democratize energy production and strengthen public engagement in climate policy.

Electric Vehicles
BYD’s new-generation Seal model at an auto show in New Delhi, India on January 18, 2025. BYD’s sales rank seventh among global carmakers. Credit: 123rf

After Ottawa paused its federal zero-emission vehicle mandate, Quebec followed suit by softening its own target — scaling back from 100% EV sales by 2035 to 90%, and allowing plug-in hybrids to count toward the goal. Economists are also debating the potential benefits of lifting tariffs on Chinese EVs to lower costs and accelerate adoption. Meanwhile, the idea of using EV batteries to support community power grids remains a major untapped opportunity, progressing only through a handful of small pilot projects.

FINANCE

Ten years after Mark Carney’s “Tragedy of the Horizon” speech helped rally the global finance industry around climate risk, the Net Zero Banking Alliance officially shut down this week — undone by earlier defections from major U.S. and Canadian banks. Meanwhile, John Kerry is urging the climate finance community to emphasize the economic case for climate investment rather than focusing solely on its social benefits.

CARBON CAPTURE

Another direct air capture pilot project launched this week in Alberta, joining the Deep Sky initiative in testing a range of emerging technologies aimed at removing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere.

BUSINESS EMISSIONS

Apple and Amazon announced new climate leadership initiatives this week, reinforcing their commitments to cutting corporate emissions. In France, regulators are cracking down on the environmental impact of fast-fashion giants like Shein and Temu. Meanwhile, analysts argue that the massive energy demand from the growing AI sector doesn’t have to be a threat — it could instead become a powerful catalyst for accelerating renewable energy adoption in Canada.

DROUGHT
Subsidence in Tehran led to a major accident in the city’s subway network in June 2016

In a stunning announcement, Iranian officials said the country may need to relocate its capital, Tehran — a city of 10 million people — as its water supplies have run out and over-extraction of groundwater is causing severe land subsidence that’s making buildings unsafe. Iran may be an early warning for the world, as mounting water crises begin to threaten other major cities — including some in North America.

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