The transition to renewable energy will require a lot of electricity storage. At a utility-scale level, we will need to make electricity when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing and then store it for when we need it. At a household level, we will need to bring our electricity with us, like we do with gas, in our cars, equipment and other devices.
All that energy storage means a lot of new batteries. It’s natural to wonder: “Isn’t all that mining for batteries going to be bad for the planet too?” How do we know that we aren’t just substituting one bad thing for another? Might we be changing four quarters for a dollar, as the saying goes?
It’s a common concern. Fortunately, there is a lot going on in the battery world – so let me share some of the good news I’ve learned about why we can be excited about a battery-filled future.
1. Some of the biggest and best batteries don’t even use minerals.
A battery is just an energy storage device. In that sense – if I take a big boulder and lift it high off the ground, it becomes an energy storage device, because when I drop it, the “stored” energy of gravity is released as the boulder falls to the ground.
If you attach a cable to the boulder and wind the other end around an electrical turbine, the energy of the falling boulder can be used to create electricity. So if you are generating abundant electricity with a municipal solar array during the day – that excess electricity can be used to lift weights up in the air when the sun is shining, storing the energy that can be released when it is needed.
That’s the principle behind a gravity battery and they are already being built in abandoned mine shafts where weights can be raised to great heights. The other thing about abandoned mining operations – they used to use a lot of electricity – so they usually already have big power connections to them. Those connections can be used to send electricity back the other way to the places that need it.
There’s something really comforting about the idea of old coal mines being so useful in the transition to renewable energy.
2. Battery technology is cutting the need for new mineral mining.
Gravity batteries work well for utility-scale storage, but to electrify vehicles and other equipment that currently run on gas, electricity needs to be portable – that means a lot more batteries.
The great news is that battery technology is progressing rapidly. Thanks to improvements in battery chemistry and recycling processes in the last 10 years, the demand for lithium, nickel and cobalt is 60% to 140% lower than what it would have been without those improvements.
Battery technology has already cut the need for minerals …
That’s a conclusion from the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), an independent, non-partisan energy think-tank of over 600 global experts. They’ve just published a new report that describes how the global industry is evolving along a path toward “circular battery self-sufficiency”.
Among the points that RMI makes in their report is that even with the improvements we’ve already seen, we are still very much in the early days of battery innovation. We can expect a great deal more progress.
Technology improvements such as solid-state batteries that pack even more energy into each unit of volume are expected to be released soon. For example, Samsung has announced that they expect to begin producing solid-state batteries – which will extend electric vehicle ranges to nearly 1,000 km on a single charge – in 2027. Automakers in China are already using 1,000 km range semi-solid state batteries in production vehicles.
Battery charging times are also dropping rapidly. For instance, in June the UK-based company Nybolt announced the record-breaking news that they’ve developed a compact EV battery capable of being recharged to 80% capacity in under 5 minutes.
As batteries are becoming smaller, more powerful and more efficient, it is reducing the resources needed for their production.
3. Battery recycling is surging
The big strides in battery innovation also include recycling technology. According to RMI’s report, most lithium-ion batteries are already being recycled today. With current technology, we can recover between 80% to 95% of minerals from these batteries. That is expected to improve with newer, more efficient processes.
From a regulatory perspective, countries around the world are ramping up their battery recycling efforts, rolling out ambitious policies to ensure the collection and reuse of battery materials.
In Europe, the EU Battery Regulation is setting higher collection targets and pushing for efficient recycling methods. In the U.S., initiatives like the Battery Recycling and Critical Mineral Recovery Act are funding recycling programs and research projects. States are enacting laws to enforce recycling and or ban the disposal of batteries in landfills. China isn’t lagging either—they’ve put strict recycling rules in place and built a solid infrastructure for battery recycling.
The economics of recycling are also getting better, thanks to rapid innovation and economies of scale. This means that with a strong policy push and improving economics, battery recycling capacity is growing fast—often much faster than the rate at which batteries are reaching the end of their life.
Recycling capacity will exceed forecasted needs…
In their analysis, RMI concludes that the total announced battery recycling capacity today would be sufficient to recycle all available batteries at end-of-life through 2030, as well as all their production scrap.
4. The mineral demand for batteries is expected to peak in the next decade.
These innovations mean that, despite the increased use of batteries worldwide, our need to dig up new battery minerals from the ground is expected to peak in the next decade.
The analysts at RMI estimate that with current trends in chemistry mix, and energy density, the net demand for minerals — total demand minus recycled supply — will peak for lithium in 2038, nickel in 2034, and cobalt in 2028.
New battery mineral demand will peak soon…
5. With recycling – we may not need to mine at all by 2050.
Peak demand soon assumes that current trends will continue. However, with global effort and investment going towards improving battery efficiencies, analysts expect accelerated progress in the coming years.
Assuming an accelerated trend of development, RMI forecasts the world can reach net-zero demand for minerals before 2050. Globally, we would reach the point where the inputs required for battery production could be solely supplied by recycling – no new materials would need to be mined.
Recycled battery materials may supply all demand by 2050 …
That means that mineral mining is heading to be a one-off effort. End-of-life batteries will become the new mineral ore, limiting the need for battery mineral mining in the long term. After using a battery for 10–15 years, its mineral content can be collected and recycled at 90-94%+ efficiency. Improving overall battery and transport system efficiency by 6-10% per decade is enough to offset recycling losses.
6. Oil extraction is much more harmful to our planet than battery mining
According to RMI’s analysis – to supply all the future global needs for critical battery minerals, we will need to mine about 125 million tons of material. With that amount of material in circulation, we would reach the point where we could continuously reuse existing material to supply future battery needs.
Extracting 125 million tonnes battery metals of sounds like a huge number – but compared to oil extraction – it’s not.
Consider that the minerals in these batteries will help replace the internal combustion engines for road transport. Right now, those engines use up over 17 times more oil annually (2,150 million tons per year) than the minerals we need to extract one time to run transportation indefinitely.
Annual oil extraction has a far bigger impact than total battery mining …
Even if you include other raw materials in ore and brine, the total weight still ends up being over 30% less than the annual oil extraction for road transport. Plus, unlike minerals, oil gets burned up in engines and needs to be replaced every year, forever.
So, the next couple of decades of mining for battery minerals can essentially be a one-time activity. It is expected that this one-off effort will yield the minerals needed to power our energy and mobility systems not just by 2050 but all the way to 2100 and beyond.
A Bright Battery Filled Future?
Admittedly, these scenarios rely on forecasts of continued innovation. Is it really reasonable to expect battery tech to keep improving over the next 20-30 years?
There is a good case to say it is reasonable. Advancing battery technology is key to using renewable energy and electrifying vehicles, making it crucial in the fight against climate change – the greatest threat facing humanity.
Universities, companies, and research institutions worldwide are therefore highly focused on batteries, sharing ideas and innovations to speed up progress. Governments and private companies are pouring money into battery research, pushing for better performance and supporting the commercialization of new tech.
Perhaps crucially, the challenges of improving efficiency in performance, materials use, and recycling are less scientifically demanding problems than those that require major scientific invention or breakthroughs.
Consider computers for instance – the invention of the first computers required major breakthroughs. The task of making subsequent computers more and more powerful and small enough to fit in your pocket only required a consistent application of marginal improvements. Those are the kinds of marginal improvements that are already underway in battery tech.
So, it’s time to stop worrying and learn to love the battery – they’re crucial for moving away from oil, reducing emissions, cutting air pollution and tackling climate change.
And unlike oil, where we constantly need to explore, extract and consume the planet’s resources to feed our energy needs – we can create a sustainable closed-loop cycle for batteries that would see new mineral extraction peak soon and potentially stop new mining by 2050, paving the way for a cleaner, greener future. ■
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